Two sets of polls released Sunday find an edge for
the GOP in a closely contested Senate midterm environment, although they differ
on the size of that advantage.
A set of online CBS/New York
Times/YouGov polls conducted in every Senate racefinds an electoral landscape
that has remained both competitive and largely stable throughout the year, with
changes of less than 4 points in nine of the 10 most competitive races.
Republicans "hold at least a nominal lead in eight states held by
Democrats, more than the six they need to retake the chamber," writes the New
York Times' Nate Cohn. The Times' Senate model gives Republicans a 61 percent
chance, or a "slight edge," of retaking the Senate.
The most notable change from the
last wave of YouGov polling is in Alaska, where the survey shows Republican Dan
Sullivan pulling ahead of Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska). Polling this year in
the state has been both sparse and inconsistent.
A separate trio of Senate polls by NBC/Marist focusing
on three of the most competitive states finds Republicans leading in Arkansas
and Kentucky, while in Colorado the Democratic incumbent remains ahead.
The leading candidate's margins
in all three NBC/Marist surveys -- 8 points in Kentucky and 5 points in
Arkansas for the Republican candidates, and 6 points in Colorado for the
Democrat -- are wider than those seen in HuffPost Pollster's poll-tracking model, which shows all
three races remaining extremely competitive.
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