IN EARLY 2015 the
chances of ”Brexit”— Britain departing from the European Union—seemed remote.
Today, largely because of Europe’s migration crisis and the interminable euro
mess, the polls have narrowed. Some recent surveys even find a majority of
Britons wanting to leave.
David Cameron,
Britain’s Conservative prime minister, is partly responsible. Although he has
repeatedly urged his party to stop “banging on about Europe”, his Eurosceptic
backbenchers, scared witless by the rise of Nigel Farage’s virulently anti-EU
UK Independence Party (UKIP), have constantly hassled him to adopt a tougher
line with Brussels. His response has generally been to appease them. One early
morsel he threw them was the 2011 European Union Act, which requires any
EU-wide treaty that passes substantive new powers to Brussels to be put to a
British referendum. That sounded like a big concession, but no new treaties
were then in prospect. In January 2013, Mr Cameron promised that, if the Tories
were re-elected in May 2015, he would renegotiate Britain’s membership and hold
an in-out referendum by the end of 2017.
Following his election victory in May
2015, the prime minister claimed to have embarked on a renegotiation to fix
what he says is wrong with the EU. Yet he was deliberately vague about
what changes he wants, partly for fear that if his shopping list leaks Eurosceptics
in his own party will rubbish it as inadequate. At the European summit on
October 15th-16th, however, he was told by his fellow heads of government to
produce a list of precise demands in November if there was to be any chance of
the negotiations being concluded, as he at one time hoped, at the December
European summit. He did produce a list of demands but a deal still eludes him.
The prime minister is now hopeful of getting an agreement by the end of
February.
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